Tuesday 15th March 2011 – Tips for Tuesday Of the Cheltenham Festival 2011
Professional punter Carl Harris (carlharris.co.uk) previews Champion Hurdle Day at the Cheltenham Festival;
The shock news broke on Sunday that Binocular was not declared and will not defend his Champion Hurdle crown. There is always controversy and many twist and turns on the road to Cheltenham, but no one saw that coming and the punters are up in arms. Certainly there were indications on Betfair on Sunday as he went out to 7/1 before the 10am declaration deadline. In the current climate there will need to be a look at who laid those prices and why, but I personally think it makes things easier as we would not have known what shape Binocular would be in, reminiscent of last year it has to be said.
1:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle, Cue Card, Win
Last year Dunguib was the nailed on Irish banker. This year we have a horse with better form and a much better price in Cue Card who was a really impressive winner of the Champion Bumper last year, as was Dunguib the year before. Cue Card was talked about as a Champion Hurdle possible, but that notion was soon put to bed when he was well and truly beaten by Menorah, who in fact won this race last year. The form though of Cue Card is rock solid, Menorah is the only horse to have beaten him and he will be a favourite for the Champion Hurdle, now Binocular will stay at home. From what I have seen Cue Card looks a very decent sort, and is the most likely winner. Though short I certainly will be backing Cue Card. It is important to get off to a good start and Cue Card in my view will win this.
2:05 The Arkle Chase, Finian’s Rainbow, Win, Lay Medermit.
I have told punting colleagues that I will be laying Alan King’s Medermit. Most of them think I am crazy. But he looks to have what you would politely call quirks, and this is no easy race on a very testing course. I will lay him, i am very clear on that it is will be my play in this race, my only bet. If you do not like laying then i would point you in the direction of Nicky Henderson’s Finian’s Rainbow. Unbeaten over fences he has not in truth really been properly tested, but Nicky Henderson is the most successful festival trainer of those contesting the prizes in 2011 and is never one to underestimate. I think there is more to come, but as I said I would rather take the field against the favourite as my strategy here.
2:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase, Blazing Bailey, Each-Way.
To say this was a tough race would be like saying Messi is a decent footballer. His brilliance, in this context, is a measure of how difficult the opening handicap of the festival is to solve. As I have said previously I am looking for value and one horse that fits the bill is top weight Blazing Bailey. For some each-way value I have backed resurgent Blazing Bailey who will have to carry top weight but has won three of his last five races and is one horse who loves Cheltenham. You will certainly get some value here and having taken 12-1 with Coral I am more than happy with those odds.
3:20 The Champion Hurdle, Peddler’s Cross, Each-Way.
Boy this is a tough one to call. The ratings say Hurricane Fly, the form says Menorah, the Irish say Dunguib at a big price and I think Peddler’s Cross is the safest bet, but the truth is I will not be playing big in this race. It really is wide open and if they ran the race five times, I think there would be five different results. So why Peddler’s Cross? Unbeaten and already the conqueror of Binocular he possibly is the real deal and if he is in the frame we have an each-way bet to nothing. He looks the type only ever to do enough so it is hard to tell what he has left in the tank, he could have a turbo boost to deploy, but there are many unanswered questions. So in summary a great race, not one to play big, but on balance I like the progressive profile of Peddler’s Cross, so a small bet each-way.
4:00 Cross Country Chase, No Bet
No my kind of race at all, never had a bet in this race and I don’t intent to start today.
4:40 Mare’s Hurdle, Quevega, Win
Not much needs to be said about Quevega, she is a dual winner of this race and goes for a historic third successive victory here. The price reflects just how much better, if on top of her game, she is than the rest of the field. If she line’s up, then she will be 100% ready to defend her crown and I cannot see anything getting close to her. She is a very special mare who deserves to become a festival legend with a hat-trick of wins here. She has run just once since last year but hosed up and there is no doubt Willie Mullins will have here tuned to the minute for this. She is banker bet material and I would suggest she will be my biggest wager of the day. A good thing in my view, Quevega.
5:15 Centenary Novices’ Handicap Chase, Divers, Each-Way
Ferdy Murphy rarely draws a festival blank. He has his horses tuned up for Cheltenham and his record is impressive. So I am prepared to take some value on Divers, who could have a few pounds in hand. Graham Lee has a decent record here too, but again this is a completive race so its minimum stakes but at the prices we don’t need much on to generate a decent return at the prices.
It should be a good day and I wish you the best of luck. I will be back tomorrow with more Cheltenham Festival bets.
