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Wednesday Cheltenham Tips for Champion Chase Day

The Cheltenham Festival is well and truly underway and there is still so much to look forward to, if starting today with the feature race being the Queen Mother Champion Chase. This is where it gets interesting, and good performance in the betting ring today could set us up for the week. Here are my best bets for Wednesday at the Cheltenham Festival.

1:30 Cheltenham National Hunt Chase, Chicago Grey, Win 5/1 With Ladbrokes

Now, I am no fan of amateur rider races. Therefore personally I will not be having a bet in this race and instead will take the opportunity for a long lunch. However on the form book the Gordon Elliott trained Chicago Grey looks to be very well treated and in the context of this race has a half decent pilot aboard. If you wanted an interest in this race than Chicago Grey would be my pick but I stress that this is not a race I want to get involved in, amateur rider races are fraught with danger. You pay your money you take your chance, the choice is yours! No bet for me.

2:05 Neptune Novice Hurdle, Rock on Ruby, Win 15/2 with bet365

I definitely will be getting involved in this race, and strongly fancy the Paul Nicholls trained The Rock on Ruby who I think represents genuine value. Though beaten by Bobs Worth at Cheltenham last time, there was only a couple of lengths in it with Harry Skelton, aboard Rock On Ruby, dropping his whip, add to that he was riding against Barry Geraghty too. Ruby Walsh will be back in the saddle, all being well, which, no disrespect to young Skelton, is a big plus and as an each-way investment Rock on Ruby looks rock solid. Oscar’s Well is another favourite I will be taking on.

 2:40 The RSA Chase, Time for Rupert, Win 5/2 with Paddy Power

 The RSA Chase is usually a difficult puzzle to solve, not this year. I think Time For Rupert is nailed on here and is my banker bet, certainly of Wednesday if not for Big Buck’s on Thursday, the entire Cheltenham Festival. He bolted up over course and distance last time and it will be a huge win for both trainer and jockey, but this is a real class horse over fences who at 9/4 looks a real banker bet. There is nothing in the field to worry Time For Rupert if he reproduces that performance of last time out.  My advice is to make time for Rupert your banker on biggest investment of the day. 

3:20 The Queen Mother Champion Chase, Master Minded, Win 7/2 with Ladbrokes

Paul Nicholls recently told the press at his pre-festival open day that Master Minded was by far his best chance of a winner at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. I for one take that very seriously. The dual Champion Chase Winner was disappointing last year when seeking a hat-trick of wins in this event, but there were genuine excuses that day, remember horses are not machines, and since then he has done nothing wrong. Big Zeb, who comes here to defend his title was beaten last time out and I think is another favourite to take on. Master Minded clung on last time, under Tony McCoy, to fend off the late challenge of Somersby, who will have another crack at the eight-year-old here. I think Ruby Walsh makes a big difference to Master Minded and I think that we will see a better performance than we did last time and I think Master Minded will make it three wins in four years for the Paul Nicholls team. I will also be laying Big Zeb.

 4:00 The Coral Cup, Aegean Dawn, Each Way 7/1 with Bet365

 Festival handicaps are notoriously difficult, and this is no exception. However Nicky Henderson has a fantastic record when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival, no trainer with a licence in fact has more wins to his name than Henderson. In Aegean Dawn he has a very progressive and lightly raced horse showed his class when accounting for Mile Chief last time out. He was in receipt of bags of weight that day, and really was the proverbial handicap good thing that day. The handicapper has piled on the weight, but in my view he may still be well handicapped and pull off a bit of a touch for connections in the Coral Cup. I know that the Henderson team do fancy Aegean Dawn and certainly he looks a solid each way proposition to me. 

4:40 The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, Plan A, Win 13/2 with William Hill

 In many ways this is the hardest race, certainly of the day, potentially of the whole meeting. There is little form on which the handicapper has been able to draw and this really is a minefield. From what I have seen I am tentatively looking at the Willie Mullins trained, Plan A although with little conviction and I have little appetite in truth for this race. Remember there is no room that says you have to have a bet in a race and certainly I have no desire to lose money. From what I have seen I just think Plan A may have little up his sleeve and may be well treated, but it’s all ifs and maybes in this race, and therefore no bet for me!

 5:15 The Champion Bumper, Ericht, Each Way 8/1 with Paddy Power

 Last year Cue Card destroyed the field at and massive price, which is the danger in this race but part of what makes it fun! As a student of the form book I have to go with what I have seen so far and the Nicky Henderson trained Ericht looked and very decent type when landing a great to bumper at Newbury in February. The favourite has bags of promise but as yet that is unfulfilled and although it is entirely possible that something wins at a big price I think Ericht offers some value and is the one that I will be backing each way in this Champion Bumper to round off the day.

 As always the best of luck and don’t forget to drop in tomorrow as I take a look at World Hurdle Day, with my best bet of the entire festival running on Thursday!

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Tuesday 15^th March 2011 – Tips for Tuesday Of the Cheltenham Festival 2011

Professional punter Carl Harris (carlharris.co.uk) previews Champion Hurdle Day at the Cheltenham Festival;

The shock news broke on Sunday that Binocular was not declared and will not defend his Champion Hurdle crown. There is always controversy and many twist and turns on the road to Cheltenham, but no one saw that coming and the punters are up in arms. Certainly there were indications on Betfair on Sunday as he went out to 7/1 before the 10am declaration deadline. In the current climate there will need to be a look at who laid those prices and why, but I personally think it makes things easier as we would not have known what shape Binocular would be in, reminiscent of last year it has to be said.

1:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle, Cue Card, Win

 Last year Dunguib was the nailed on Irish banker. This year we have a horse with better form and a much better price in Cue Card who was a really impressive winner of the Champion Bumper last year, as was Dunguib the year before. Cue Card was talked about as a Champion Hurdle possible, but that notion was soon put to bed when he was well and truly beaten by Menorah, who in fact won this race last year. The form though of Cue Card is rock solid, Menorah is the only horse to have beaten him and he will be a favourite for the Champion Hurdle, now Binocular will stay at home. From what I have seen Cue Card looks a very decent sort, and is the most likely winner. Though short I certainly will be backing Cue Card. It is important to get off to a good start and Cue Card in my view will win this.

 2:05 The Arkle Chase, Finian’s Rainbow, Win, Lay Medermit.

I have told punting colleagues that I will be laying Alan King’s Medermit. Most of them think I am crazy. But he looks to have what you would politely call quirks, and this is no easy race on a very testing course. I will lay him, i am very clear on that it is will be my play in this race, my only bet. If you do not like laying then i would point you in the direction of Nicky Henderson’s Finian’s Rainbow. Unbeaten over fences he has not in truth really been properly tested, but Nicky Henderson is the most successful festival trainer of those contesting the prizes in 2011 and is never one to underestimate. I think there is more to come, but as I said I would rather take the field against the favourite as my strategy here.

 2:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase, Blazing Bailey, Each-Way.

 To say this was a tough race would be like saying Messi is a decent footballer. His brilliance, in this context, is a measure of how difficult the opening handicap of the festival is to solve. As I have said previously I am looking for value and one horse that fits the bill is top weight Blazing Bailey. For some each-way value I have backed resurgent Blazing Bailey who will have to carry top weight but has won three of his last five races and is one horse who loves Cheltenham. You will certainly get some value here and having taken 12-1 with Coral I am more than happy with those odds.

 3:20 The Champion Hurdle, Peddler’s Cross, Each-Way.

 Boy this is a tough one to call. The ratings say Hurricane Fly, the form says Menorah, the Irish say Dunguib at a big price and I think Peddler’s Cross is the safest bet, but the truth is I will not be playing big in this race. It really is wide open and if they ran the race five times, I think there would be five different results. So why Peddler’s Cross? Unbeaten and already the conqueror of Binocular he possibly is the real deal and if he is in the frame we have an each-way bet to nothing. He looks the type only ever to do enough so it is hard to tell what he has left in the tank, he could have a turbo boost to deploy, but there are many unanswered questions. So in summary a great race, not one to play big, but on balance I like the progressive profile of Peddler’s Cross, so a small bet each-way.

 4:00 Cross Country Chase, No Bet

 No my kind of race at all, never had a bet in this race and I don’t intent to start today.

 4:40 Mare’s Hurdle, Quevega, Win

 Not much needs to be said about Quevega, she is a dual winner of this race and goes for a historic third successive victory here. The price reflects just how much better, if on top of her game, she is than the rest of the field. If she line’s up, then she will be 100% ready to defend her crown and I cannot see anything getting close to her. She is a very special mare who deserves to become a festival legend with a hat-trick of wins here. She has run just once since last year but hosed up and there is no doubt Willie Mullins will have here tuned to the minute for this. She is banker bet material and I would suggest she will be my biggest wager of the day. A good thing in my view, Quevega.

 5:15  Centenary Novices’ Handicap Chase, Divers, Each-Way

 Ferdy Murphy rarely draws a festival blank. He has his horses tuned up for Cheltenham and his record is impressive. So I am prepared to take some value on Divers, who could have a few pounds in hand. Graham Lee has a decent record here too, but again this is a completive race so its minimum stakes but at the prices we don’t need much on to generate a decent return at the prices.

 It should be a good day and I wish you the best of luck. I will be back tomorrow with more Cheltenham Festival bets.

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Cheltenham Tips 2011, Cheltenham Festival Tips

So Here It Is….It’s Cheltenham Festival 2011

Over the next four days professional punter and tipster Carl Harris will mark your card daily at the Cheltenham Festival with his best bets of the day. Today though Carl takes a look ahead to the festival with some interesting multi-bets that could potential yield a very healthy return.

So. after all the twists and turns, the marketing, the preview evenings and the bookies special offers, the Cheltenham Festival has finally arrived. Four days of National Hunt racing unrivalled anywhere in the world, that is the simple truth. It is four days of fantastic racing, but Cheltenham also becomes a battlefield. Punters wage war with on the bookmakers, it is always a brutal conflict, more often than not a total bloodbath, but which way will it go in 2011?

Certainly 2010 was a massacre of the punters by the bookmakers. Shrewd investors will have bought bookmaker’s shares on their return from Prestbury Park in 2010, such was the devastation the results brought to the betting public. This year though, punter’s are our for revenge, eagerly optimistic, it’s time to make those evil bookmakers pay. I reckon that a banker accumulator may be just the thing to do just that!

So what are my Cheltenham festival bankers? And what about those pre-festival bets, like top trainer, leading rider? If you like special bets, then you are going to have plenty offered to you this week, that is the biggest certainty of the Cheltenham Festival. As far as top trainer and leading rider, I honestly have to say this is a market that holds little appeal for me, these markets hold little value and are a nightmare to work out! There are better ways to get paid, in my view anyway. This is my idea of a pre-festival flutter….

If you have a spare £10 or £20 then a banker accumulator is an interesting investment that could give you a big return, certainly a exciting involvement. A couple of years ago I landed one such bet and it paid out a very healthy sum. I recommend an each-way accumulator on;

• Cue Card
• Quevega
• Time for Rupert
• Big Buck’s

Four horses I think will win and roll up in to a very decent payout indeed. I back the bet each-way as an insurance policy. So why do I think these are the bankers?

Cue Card, Supreme Novice Hurdle
Cue Card was talked about as a Champion Hurdle possible, but that notion was soon put to bed when he was well and truly beaten by Menorah, who in fact won this race last year. The form though of Cue Card is rock solid, Menorah is the only horse to have beaten him and he will now probably go off as favourite for the Champion Hurdle. From what I have seen Cue Card looks a very decent sort, and is the most likely winner here. He looks head and shoulders above this field, form what we have seen Cue Card is the real deal !

Quevega, Mares Hurdle
Quevega is looking for a historic third win in this race, she is all about class. She has raced just once since last year’s victory but will be prepared to the minute and the vibes are positive from the Irish camp. I would suggest that Quevega is a good thing if I dare use those words at Cheltenham! She is far better, if at her best than anything else in this division.

Time For Rupert, RSA Chase
The feature on Wednesday’s card is the RSA Chase. I think Time For Rupert is nailed on here, there I go again! He bolted up over course and distance last time and it will be a huge win for both trainer and jockey, but this is a real class horse over fences who at 9/4 looks a real banker bet. There is nothing in the field to worry Time For Rupert if he reproduces that performance of last time out.

Big Buck’s, World Hurdle
the price for Big Buck’s is very generous. Odds against, in fact 5/4, even 11/8 is being offered as I write and that to me is a license to print money. He has all the class in the world and the emergence of David Pipe’s Grand Crus is the driving force behind the drift that has developed on Big Buck’s. Nothing will stop Big Buck’s in my view from, hopefully, emulating Quevega and making it three wins in a row in their respective events. This is one horse though that is a banker and I have already lumped on Paul Nicholls’ charge as the cornerstone of my Festival betting strategy. If I had to pick one horse for the 2011 Cheltenham Festival it would most definitely be Big Buck’s. No doubt about it!

So my pre-festival bet is an each-way accumulator, on

• Cue Card
• Quevega
• Time for Rupert
• Big Bucks

I hope you join me throughout the week and that we make some money and best the bookies in to submission !

Good Luck, Carl

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