Thursday; 1:30 Cheltenham, Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase Preview

1:30 Cheltenham, Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase

It was another Paul Nicholls winner last season with Timmy Murphy steering home Chapturgeon to win off a mark of 10st 11. Nicholls saddles the top weight here in Take The Breeze who looks to have an excellent chance with Harry Skelton taking the ride. The winner of this race has been a 7 year old in four of the last five runnings and all of the last five winners were in the top two last time out.

This is a very competitive race and I am going to go against the trend somewhat here with a modest bet on the Paul Nicholls trained Rivaliste with Ruby Walsh in the plate. Last time out at Sandown the five year-old did nothing wrong when second to Doctor Pat, going down by a nose. Rivaliste carries some rather famous colours, those of Best Mate so it would be a nice winner, but lets face it any winner we have backed will be nice. a modest bet here folks on Rivaliste.

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7/1 For No Luck For The Irish on St Paddys Day

Having laid Dunguib for an hour from 11-12 at an industry top price 11/10 today Stan James will have the same top price offer for Long Run in Wednesdays RSA Chase.

During this period the firm will also be offering 1/4 odds 1, 2, 3, 4 places in the 1.30 the NH Chase and 1/4 odds 4 places in the Champion Bumper

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Enhanced win only book Champion Chase:
5-6 Master Minded
5 Kalahari King
8 Twist Magic
10 Big Zeb
11 Forpadydeplasterer
40 Well Chief
66 Golden Silver
80 Oh Crick
Stan James Happy Hour concessions 11am-12noon:

1.30 National Hunt Chase 1/4 odds 1.2.3.4

Top industry price Long Run 2.40

5.15 bumper 1/4 1.2.3.4
Number Of Irish Winners On St Patrick’s Day:
No winners 7/1
1 winner 2/1
2 winners 6/4
3 winners 3/1
4 winners 10/1
5 or more 66/1

Wed: 3:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase Preview

3:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

This is all about Master Minded. Paul Nicholls’ horse has won two Champion Chases already and goes for three in a row here. It will be a major story should he win and similarly should he get beaten. So will Master Minded win the Champion Chase.

Yes.

Okay, perhaps it is not quite that simple but the evidence of his last run in the Game Spirit Chase at Sandown suggests he is back to his best and at his best he is way better than anything in this field. Master Minded is a short price but is the winner in my book.

Free Horseracing Tips

How did Ruby Walsh say on Master Minded?

Some will point to his defeat on his penultimate start. There was a genuine excuse there, he has a fractured rib but despite that being found some will take that form at face value. Anyone doing that is an idiot. Having recovered from that Master Minded came back at Newbury and won despite a shocking error at the last.

Some will say that Master Minded is all of a sudden a suspect jumper. Again they are the words of an idiot. Ruby Walsh immediately owned up to it being his fault. A big man who takes the ride again and for me is the safest bet of the week. Master Minded will land his third Champion Chase.

Kalahari King is a good horse for the each-way money, but not in the class of Master Minded. Even on official ratings Master Minded is way ahead of the field.
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Champion Chase Betting Advice;

  • Master Minded- Win.

Here is the Paul Nicholls stable tour…

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The ATR team preview the Champion Chase

Wed: 2:40 RSA Chase Preview

2:40 Cheltenham, RSA Chase (Grade 1)

This is a great race, in many ways one of the best of the meeting. It was another Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins win last year with Cooldine but I don’t think the Irish will get much of a look in here. Nicky Henderson holds all the aces in the 2010 RSA Chase with the two leading fancies.

Long Run has taken over at the head of the market, he was a good winner at Warwick last time out, but it was the reported set back by Punchestowns that cemented his position as RSA Chase favourite.

I am and always have been a Punchestowns fan. If he is right, and I don’t think Nicky would run him if he wasn’t, then I will be a mojor backer. Punchestowns is one of my bankers of the meeting. He was a close second to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle last year and has looked a very high class chaser. Last time at Sandown he made his first jumping error, it was a shocker, but he came back to win and win well.

Free Horseracing Tips

Punchestowns second to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle

Barry Geraghty takes the mount, he has not had to choose as the owners son, a decent amateur, but an amateur nonetheles, takes the ride on Long Run. If there is nothing between the horses then there is no contest with the jockeys. In my view Punchestowns will win the RSA Chase.

One horse I do like is Diamond Harry who is thrid favourite here. He may just be short of top class but i would like to see him run well and get in the places. Although I like Diamond Harry there is no room for sentiment and Punchestowns is where my money is going in this RSA Chase.
RSA Chase Betting Advice;

  • Punchestowns- Win

Here is the Nicky Henderson Stable Tour….

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Wed: 2:05 Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Preview

2:05 Cheltenham, Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

This is a very difficult race to solve in my view. The prize went to ireland last season with the well backed Mikael D’haguenet, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ruby Walsh winning.

The betting has another Irish runner at its summit, Dermot Weld’s Rite of Passage, who I am going to take on. I don’t think he has competed at a level high enough to justify such a short price. I am more than happy to have the field against him here at the current prices. Rite of Passage is a lay for me.

Ten of the last eleven runners finished first or second last time out, so an inform performer holds sway here. The one I really like here is Peddlers Cross who at the 8/1 quoted on Monday is my bet here. At Haydock last time he won a grade 2 race in some style indicating that he could be a very decent sort. I have backed Peddlers Cross each-way and think I will get a good run for my money here.

http://images.sportinglife.com/08/03/330/Donald_McCain_Cloudy_Lane_758228.jpg

Finians Rainbow is one I made a note of last time out having backed him at Ascot but I will stick with Peddlers Cross.


Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Betting Advice;

  • Rite Of Passage- Lay
  • Peddlers Cross- Each-way

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Irish v English on Day One

Stan James make an Irish clean sweep 66/1 on day 1 of tomorrow’s Cheltenham festival and make 3 & 4 winners the 13/8 jt favs.

Head of PR Charlie McCann:” We make the Irish favourites to win four of the six races on day 1 and with a strong challenge in the Champion Hurdle we may see support for five winners at 11/2. Casey Jones and Offshore Account are their only runners in a maximum field of 24 for the William Hill Chase but the pair are both Grade 1 winners over fences and there are likely to be much worse 66/1 shots on offer during the week.”

Number Of Irish Winners On Day 1

No Winners 66/1

1 Winner 20/1

2 Winners 4/1

3 Winners 13/8

4 Winners 13/8

5 Winners 11/2

6 Winners 66/1

Ireland VS Great Britain

Supreme Novices’ 2/5       -   15/8

The Arkle 1/2       -   13/8

William Hill Trophy 12/1     -   1/25

Champion Hurdle 13/8      -   1/2

Cross Country Chase 1/14     -    6/1

Mares Hurlde 1/6      -    4/1

Will Dunguib Be Odds On? You Bet!

Stan James have a market on what price Irish banker Dunguib will be returned in the Spinal Research Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and make odds on a shade of odds on at 10/11.

Cheltenham Festival Betting 2010

Dunguib The Business!

Head of PR Charlie McCann:”After Dunguib‘s brilliant win at Leopardstown last time you couldn’t imagine that the pride of Ireland could possibly be anything other than long odds on for the Supreme Novices‘, but doubts are emerging about his relatively inexperienced pilot, his ability to jump at speed on the forecast good ground and the possibility that he might have to weave his way through a maximum field if he is dropped out. It is 7/1 that he is returned evens and 11/10 that he is returned odds against.”

What SP will Dunguib be returned?
Odds on 10/11
Evens 7/1
Odds against 11/10


Champion Hurdle 2010 ~ Outright Prices-Nr No Bet, (place terms: 1/4 the first 3)

3 Go Native
5 Solwhit
7 Punjabi
7 Binocular
7 Khyber Kim
7 Medermit
9 Zaynar
10 Celestial Halo
12 Starluck
50 Won In The Dark
80 Jumbo Rio
200 Raise Your Heart

Dunguib Winning Distance Special
2 Over 4 Lengths
11-4 Under 4 Lengths
12 Exactly 4 Lengths

Big 4 Special – Which Horse Will Start At Shortest Price? ~
4-6 Big Buck’s
3 Kauto Star
5 Master Minded
6 Dunguib

Big 4 Special – Which Horse Will Win By Furthest? ~
11-8 Kauto Star
9-4 Master Minded
7-2 Big Buck’s
5 Dunguib
14 No Winners


Big 4 Special – What Will Happen First? ~ Big 4 Special – What Will Happen First?

8-11 Dunguib Wins Supreme Novices
11-4 Master Minded Wins Queen Mother
6 Big Bucks Wins World Hurdle
14 No Winners
20 Kauto Star Wins Gold Cup

Big 4 Special – How Many Of Big 4 Will Win? ~ Big 4 Special – How Many Of Big 4 Will Win?

6-4 2 Winners
5-2 3 Winners
11-4 1 Winner
13-2 4 Winners
14 No Winners
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Tuesday 4:40 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle Preview

4:40 Cheltenham David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

I will be absolutely gob smacked if this doesn’t go to an Irish trained runner. Quevega is looking to win back to back David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle titles but has an amazing mare called Voler La Vedette standing in her way.

As I said when previewing the Champion Hurdle she absolutely hammered Go Native, which can be taken many ways but along with her unbeaten record shows that this is a very good mare. She would be my best bet of the day, including Dunguib in the first!

This is a great race and I do not expect Quevega to give up her crown easily. I am hugely encouraged that Barry Geraghty rides Voler La Vedette. She was considered for The Champion Hurdle, for me this is the right decision and think she is an absolute shoe in for The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle and will deny Quevega a historic double.

David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle betting advice;

  • Voler La Vedette, Win (NAP)

Tuesday 3:20 Champion Hurdle Preview

3:20 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (grade 1)

Tuesdays big race The Champion Hurdle. Go Native will land a £1m bonus if he wins here but there are 10 horses standing in his way. The Champion Hurdle has in many way been the hardest race antepost to fathom. There has been more in outs than the hokey cokey for the Champion Hurdle Field. We know that there are eleven runners, but who will win?

Nicky Henderson saddles three in the race with Punjabi, the reigning champion being the choice of stable jockey Barry Geraghty. In my view he has made a mistake, I think Zaynar will perform better and in my view represents the best each-way value in the race. He was beaten at Kelso but I am prepared to forget that, the ground was a joke and he will get perfect going at Cheltenham. Last year he won the Triumph Hurdle and is looking to emulate Katchit to win the Champion Hurdle as a five year-old. However only one five year old from 79 that have started since 1985 have won.

What is interesting is that Ireland have a strong hand in The Champion Hurdle with Solwhit and Go Native reopposing. Go Native beat Solwhit in TheFighting Fifth Hurdle and I think can do it again. Here is that run at Newcastle last year;

Go Native looks very strong here. Go Native has only been beaten once this season which was by Voler La Vedette and has done nothing wrong since. Certainly against this field I would opt for Go Native. Binocular has looked a shadow of the horse he was, Punjabi won an egg and spoon race last time and has shown nothing since his Champion Hurdle win last year, Celestial Halo could run well but I am prepared to overlook Paul Nicholls’ horse here.

I think this is a really tough race but I am going with two in The Champion Hurdle.

Champion Hurdle Betting Advice;

  • Go Native- To Win.
  • Zaynar- Each-way

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The ATR Team Preview;

Tuesday 2:05 The Arkle Chase Preview

2:05 Cheltenham, Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

The Arkle Chase is a race where there has only been one winning favourite in the last ten years. Forpadydeplasterer won last year at 8/1. The Arkle is one of the toughest races to solve but what the stats do tell us is that we need a good jumper and seven of the last eleven winners were trained by Pipe, Nicholls or King.

Cheltenham Festival 2010

Can McCoy be beaten on Captain Cee Bee

We have our starting point, but it is a certainty that Alan King will not be winning The Arkle. The market would suggest that this is going Ireland in 2010 with Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe heading the market. Tony McCoy will be on Captain Cee Bee who looked to be galloping all over Sizing Europe when falling at the last in a grade one in Ireland. Captain Cee Bee is the one to beat in my view.

So can the Irish be beaten in The Arkle in 2010? In short Yes. I am taking them on with Somersby who I really like, having seen him win well at Warwick and then jump so well at Sandown. I am backing Somersby Win and Place (each-way) because I cannot for the life of me see him out of the frame. Captain Cee Bee gets up the hill but in my view Somersby could be the best of them all.

Arkle Chase Betting Advise;

  • Somersby, each-way.

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