Dunguib heads 34 horses left in at the confirmation stage for the Spinal Research Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham on Tuesday.

Dunguib wins Champion Bumper 2009

Last season’s Weatherbys Bumper winner, trained by Philip Fenton, is seen by many as a banker and is odds-on in the ante-post betting to get the Irish off to a flier in the opening race of the four-day feast. Fenton said:

“Dunguib is grand and all has gone very smoothly, no problems thankfully. He’ll possibly jump a few flights on Thursday morning, before he heads off. We’ve taken him out of the Champion Hurdle and he goes for the Supreme. I’ve been very happy with him since Leopardstown, he’s jumped several hurdles since and he’s jumped them well.”

Paddy Power will donate £1000 to Spinal Research for every length Dunguib wins by, and Fenton added:

“If he wins half a length that will do for us, but hopefully he can do better than that for Spinal Research.”

Home contenders Get Me Out Of Here and Menorah are on target to clash with Dunguib next Tuesday. Main market rival to the Irish hotpot is totesport Trophy hero Get Me Out Of Here, owned by J P McManus and trained at Jackdaws Castle by Jonjo O’Neill.

“He came out of his last race well. His cut has healed up and he’s in good form,” said McManus’ racing manager Frank Berry of Tony McCoy’s mount. He got a bit of a gash at Newbury but he’s fine again now and Jonjo is very pleased with him. He goes there in good shape.”

Another leading fancy is Menorah, despite suffering a shock defeat at Ascot on his latest start.

“It wasn’t ideal and obviously we were thinking that he should go and win,” trainer Philip Hobbs told At The Races. But it was a little bit like when he was beaten at Doncaster in that it was a very muddling race. We were left in front and then got taken on so it was just a mess really. The horse is in good form so we’ll press on.”

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In the Daily Telegraph Charlie Brooks says Dunguib is no certainly in the Supreme Novice Hurdle;

Dunguib wins Champion Bumper 2009

The most fascinating conundrum of this year’s Cheltenham Festival is going to be answered very quickly next week. After the first race we will know whether Dunguib has lifted Ireland’s spirits and can still lay claim to being the next Istabraq.

The passionate Irish punters will have smashed into any even money the English bookmakers will have offered on the Spinal Research Supreme Novices Hurdle favourite, so someone will be licking very deep wounds.

If the evidence of the formbook is anything to go by, you would say it is the bookmakers who will take the first kicking of the meeting. The bare facts suggest that Dunguib is a bigger certainty than Gordon Brown on a bender at Bank of England’s printing press. But the formbook is wrong, as far as the outcome of this race is concerned, and this is how you figure out why.

Get your partner to stand, sideways on, in a pair of Christian Louboutin high-heeled shoes. [Please note no bigoted politically incorrect reference to wife or girlfriend here.] Then note where the balls of their toes are in relation to their ankles. Directly above them, you will find. Just as Dunguib’s ankles are vertically above his hooves.

To discover why this physical conformation is not conducive to being a top hurdler [the angle between the two should be 45 degrees], I now want you to loose school your partner around your sitting room.

Appropriate home-made obstacles for this purpose can be made using your best champagne glasses. If you do not have sufficient numbers of them to avoid a run out, intersperse them with sherry glasses. For other hurdles you could use any Ming china that you can lay your hands on, or small children. The elongated scenes of Venice, which Canaletto painted, are also ideal.

Once your ‘hurdles’ are ready, line your partner up facing in the right direction, and give them a fairly forceful whack on the bottom.

What happens next will very accurately resemble, for those of you who kept your eyes open, Dunguib trying to jump eight flights of hurdles with 19 other horses getting in his way. The financial consequences, for both you and the Irish punters, will be dire.

Dunguib is such a short price for this race because he would win it without breaking into a sweat if it was a Flat race. And although he has won the hurdle races which he has contested in Ireland this season, they have been a different proposition to the one he now faces.

At Leopardstown, last time out, he was able to scramble over the hurdles in his shambolic way, and then have time to regain his composure because it was a small field and they went a sensible pace. He will get no such breathing space at Prestbury Park. The pace of the race will be fast and furious.

Another issue for Dunguib is that he’s ridden from the back of the field. Which does not present too many problems when there are only 10 other runners in the race, but can turn into a nightmare at the back of a big field. Especially if you are not jumping fluently.

This is mission impossible for Dunguib. If you don’t believe me, ask 19 neighbours to come around after closing time, dust your partner down and set the hurdles up again.

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